Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 1AM ET

PM implied

50%$0.50/share

bid 49% / ask 51%

Current state

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deferred

Volume

24h $0

Closes in

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Distance to YES

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This market resolves manually (subjective call), so we can't auto-track how close it is.

Clarity

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How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.

Place a trade

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Recent trades

waiting…

No fills since you opened this page. Live activity will appear here as orders match.

Order bookoffline

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Depth chart · YES

Waiting for live book…

Order flow(last 5 min)

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Waiting for live fills…

Trade size distribution

watching for fills…

Live — distribution fills in as trades print.

Top holders

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How this resolves

Resolution rule not yet structured. Deadline Jul 8, 2026.(Bespoke market; rules text on Polymarket.)

Settles by: —
Resolution deadline: Wed, 08 Jul 2026 06:00:00 GMT
Oracle: UMA optimistic oracle

Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above.Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.

Implied probability

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Open on Polymarket id 2815123slug bitcoin-up-or-down-july-8-2026-1am-et