Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?

PM implied

46%$0.46/share

bid 13% / ask 79%

Current state

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deferred

Volume

$6.30

24h $0

Closes in

192d

Fri, 01 Jan 2027 05:00:00 GMT

Distance to YES

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This market resolves manually (subjective call), so we can't auto-track how close it is.

Clarity

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How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.

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Recent trades

waiting…

No fills since you opened this page. Live activity will appear here as orders match.

Order bookoffline

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Depth chart · YES

Waiting for live book…

Order flow(last 5 min)

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Waiting for live fills…

Trade size distribution

watching for fills…

Live — distribution fills in as trades print.

Top holders

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How this resolves

Resolution rule not yet structured. Deadline Jan 1, 2027.(Bespoke market; rules text on Polymarket.)

Settles by: —
Resolution deadline: Fri, 01 Jan 2027 05:00:00 GMT
Oracle: UMA optimistic oracle

Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above.Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.

Implied probability

Loading 30D…

Δ 1h▼ 1.5%

Δ 24h▼ 6.0%

Δ 7d▼ 6.5%

Δ 30d▲ 10%

Open on Polymarket id 2037111slug over-2pt5b-crypto-hack-value-in-2026