Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?

PM implied

<1%$0.01/share

bid <1% / ask 1%

Current state

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deferred

Volume

$62.7k

24h $0

Closes in

546d

Sat, 01 Jan 2028 05:00:00 GMT

Distance to YES

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This market resolves manually (subjective call), so we can't auto-track how close it is.

Clarity

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How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.

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Recent trades

waiting…

No fills since you opened this page. Live activity will appear here as orders match.

Order bookoffline

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Depth chart · YES

Waiting for live book…

Order flow(last 5 min)

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Waiting for live fills…

Trade size distribution

watching for fills…

Live — distribution fills in as trades print.

Top holders

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How this resolves

Resolves YES if the token reaches $5,000,000,000 fully-diluted valuation after launch and before Jan 1, 2028.(Token not yet launched, or FDV fetcher pending wiring.)

Settles by: FDV @ T+24h
Resolution deadline: Sat, 01 Jan 2028 05:00:00 GMT
Oracle: UMA optimistic oracle

Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above.Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.

Implied probability

Loading 30D…

Δ 1h0pp

Δ 24h0pp

Δ 7d▼ 0.5%

Δ 30d▼ 1.5%

Open on Polymarket id 920407slug variational-fdv-above-5b-one-day-after-launch-995-724-585