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SubjectivePM team
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Will Flop launch a token by September 30, 2027?

PM implied
80%$0.80/share
bid 78% / ask 82%
Current state
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deferred
Volume
$2.9k
24h $0
Closes in
358d
Fri, 01 Oct 2027 03:59:00 GMT

Distance to YES

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This market resolves manually (subjective call), so we can't auto-track how close it is.

Clarity

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How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.

Recent trades

waiting…

No fills since you opened this page. Live activity will appear here as orders match.

Order bookoffline

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Depth chart · YES

Waiting for live book…

Order flow(last 5 min)

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Waiting for live fills…

Trade size distribution

watching for fills…
Live — distribution fills in as trades print.

Top holders

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How this resolves

Subjective: Polymarket's UMA-arbitrated panel resolves this market on or before Oct 1, 2027. No machine-readable trigger.(Resolves by Polymarket-team consensus reading; no machine-readable Δ.)

Settles by
PM team
Resolution deadline
Fri, 01 Oct 2027 03:59:00 GMT
Oracle
UMA optimistic oracle

Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above. Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.

Implied probability

Loading 30D…
Δ 1h0%
Δ 24h▼ 1.0%
Δ 7d▼ 4.5%
Δ 30d▲ 38%
Open on Polymarket id 3722615slug will-flop-launch-a-token-by-september-30-2027