Will the Bitcoin halving occur by June 30, 2028?
Distance to YES
This market resolves manually (subjective call), so we can't auto-track how close it is.
Clarity
How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.
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How this resolves
Resolution rule not yet structured. Deadline Jul 1, 2028.(Bespoke market; rules text on Polymarket.)
- Settles by
- —
- Resolution deadline
- Sat, 01 Jul 2028 03:59:00 GMT
- Oracle
- UMA optimistic oracle
Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above. Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.