Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 11?
Distance to YES
Trigger line: $76,000 · right now: $83,487 · 9.85% to go
Clarity
How clearly this market resolves. We mix three things: how close the live value is to triggering YES (55%), how soon the market closes (30%), and how much volume it's seen (15%). Higher = cleaner read.
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How this resolves
Resolves YES if Binance BTC/USDT prints <= $76,000 at any point before Oct 11, 2026.
- Settles by
- Binance BTC/USDT
- Resolution deadline
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 16:00:00 GMT
- Oracle
- UMA optimistic oracle
Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window before it settles. It's still open for trading until the deadline above. Auspex doesn't control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on Polymarket.
Implied probability
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